All of a sudden the Atlantic-10 Conference looks like a power conference. The arrivals of Virginia Commonwealth and Butler will bring a new sense of life into the conference for the 2012-13 season.
1. St. Louis:
A surprise team last year, most of last year’s Billikens will return, except of course head coach Rick Majerus, who is taking the season off for health reasons. Kwamain Mitchell should be one of the top scorers in the league, averaging 12.4 points a game in his junior season. Dwayne Evans, who averaged over seven points and seven rebounds a game last year, helping lead a defense that only gave up 57.6 points per game — eighth in the nation. Jared Drew, a talented freshman out of Indianapolis, will likely man that frontcourt with Evans. Expectations will be high with this St. Louis team, and they have the talent to be a top-15 team in the nation.
After back-to-back trips to the NCAA Championship game, Butler didn’t get an NCAA Tournament nod OR an NIT invite in 2011-12, forcing the Bulldogs to settle for the CBI. Butler should be improved this year, only losing point guard Ronald Nored off of last year’s team. Andrew Smith, who apparently is never going to graduate, is back for his senior year, and will anchor the inside after his 2011-12 year with 10.7 ppg and 5.7 rebounds per game. But the best player on this team could be Rotnei Clarke, an Arkansas transfer who was second-team All-SEC his junior year. He will be eligible this year, so look for him to lead the Bulldogs in scoring. Khyle Marshall and Roosevelt Jones will also be key players for Butler.
And here is the other newcomer, rounding out the top-three in their first year in the A-10. This is a very deep team, with no one star. They lost Bradford Burgess from last year’s team (13.5 ppg., 5.1 rpg.) but they will have his younger brother Jordan Burgess likely stepping up and making big contributions for his freshman season. A backcourt led by Darius Theus and Briante Weber will likely be the strength of this team, as thy helped force 17.9 turnovers a game last season — good for third in the nation. Their leading returning scorer is Juvonte Reddic (10.4 ppg.)
If the Owls do anything for the 2012-13 season, it will be because of Khalif Wyatt, who returns for his senior season after averaging 17 points a game last year. He appears to be a lock for First-Team A-10, as well as a potential All-American candidate. But Temple lost three of their starters from last year’s team that won the A-10, meaning this season they may be closer to the bubble, if not off the bubble. Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson and Anthony Lee will be two players the Owls will count on with the graduations of three of their key players, including Ramone Moore.
Even with losing Tu Hollowy, Kenny Frease and Mark Lyons, it’s hard to keep the Musketeers out of the top-five. The Musketeers will also have to cope with the expulsion of leading returning scorer Dezmine Wells. Helping to ease the graduations of Holloway and Frease will be freshman Semaj Christian and Towson transfer Isaiah Philmore. Xavier has made the NCAA Tournament every year since 2005, and this year will likely be the toughest year they have had to return.
6. St. Josephs
9. St. Bonaventure
10. La Salle
13. George Washington
14. Rhode Island
Khalif Wyatt: One of the best scorers in the conference, this two-guard averaged 17 points a game last year. He scored 22 points and had 5 steals when Temple was able to upset No. 3 Duke this year. The Owls simply need to give Wyatt the ball and let him do the rest. He had 12 games last year with less than 10 shot attempts, and that won’t be acceptable this year.
Rotnei Clarke: The Arkansas transfer could be the go-to-guy in the Butler offense his first year for the Bulldogs. He could already be the best shooter in the conference, averaging over 42 percent from behind the 3-point line and making nearly three 3-pointers a game in his three years at Arkansas. He averaged 15 points a game his last two years as a Razorback, and it would be a surprise to see him not duplicate that in a weaker conference this year.
Kwamain Mitchell: With leading scorer Brian Conklin graduated from St. Louis, Mitchell will need to step up his scoring from last year (12.4 ppg.). He’s the best player on the best team in the conference, so you’d think he belongs on this list. Not only is he a solid scorer, but his 126 assists led the team last year.
Chaz Williams: If UMass contends for an NCAA or NIT berth, it will be because of Williams. Probably the best point guard in the conference last year, Williams averaged 16 points and six assists. The Minutemen haven’t made the Big Dance since 2997, and Williams will need to up those numbers for them to have a chance.
Chris Gaston: He may play for one of the worst teams in the conference in Fordham, but you can’t ignore this double-double machine. Last year he averaged 17 points and 9.9 rebounds, but he may need to get his team some more wins to get on this list at the end of the season.
Coach of the Year: Jim Crews
Crews, who takes over for Rick Majerus this year, is no stranger to head coaching responsibilities. He is the former head coach of Evansville and Air Force, and has NCAA Tournament appearances under his belt. This year he has the task of replacing a coaching icon, who brought St Louis to the top of the conference. They should stay at the top of the A-10 this year, and if they do it should be Crews who takes home the hardware.
Player of the Year: Khalif Wyatt
There isn’t a standout, runaway favorite to win this award, so I’m going with Wyatt. Temple has the makes of a bubble team, and Wyatt will do everything he can to push the Owls to the Big Dance. He may have to take over games at times, but he is certainly capable.
-Everyone has method to their March Madness. Picking the best mascot, the colors they like, seeing which treat your dog goes after first. Some of us who go deeper with (over-think) our picks have a slightly more structured way of making our decisions on who advances in our brackets.
For those of you who haven’t locked in picks just yet, here’s a list of stats that can help you pick or not pick certain teams in the Big Dance. Thanks to the glories of KenPom.com, RealTimeRPI.com and Statsheet.com. These stats are essential to great teams in the NCAA Tournament. Trust us, we’re experts, sorta.
For obvious reasons, these stats aren’t just ‘points’ ‘rebounds’ and ‘field goal percentage’ because that’s too damn easy and obviously has an effect, but vary from game-to-game. These statistics you’ll see below have been consistent with winning all season and can go unnoticed.
1.) STATISTIC: Three-Point Defense
REASON: Aside from being scrappy last season, all four Final Four teams in 2010-11 had one thing in common, they could stroke the three. So you better damn will be able to defend it well to stop a squad who can. This also means a team has guard length, lateral quickness and is disciplined — no lunging in desperation while on the ball — when guarding a guy 20-feet out.
BEST REMAINING TEAM: No. 3-seed Georgetown, 26.6% (Best the nation)
2.) STATISTIC: Adjusted Tempo
REASON: This is a KenPom stat, but it’s crucial. It’s based on the number of possessions a team gets per game and if you ask anyone that knows the game, if a team can’t slow down and play a game in the half-court, a team won’t go very far/as far as they were projected. A perfect example is Kentucky in 2009-10. Despite being the best in the nation on the break, John Wall and Co. were slowed by West Virginia in the Elite 8, and succumbed as a result.
BEST REMAINING TEAM: Wisconsin, 58.9 possessions per game. (Best in the nation)
3.) STATISTIC: Assist-to-Turnover Ratio
REASON: Ok, so it’s not the least obvious stat, but it often gets forgotten that teams’ guards have to take care of the ball, especially in clutch situations. Experience means nothing if Point Guard X is dribbling the ball off his foot down two with less than a minute to play. It makes a coach trust his floor general, and relaxes the rest of the players on the floor. It goes way past just being able to make the play.
BEST REMAINING PLAYER: Kyle Cassidy, St. Louis, 3.6 A-T-T Ratio. (Best in the nation)
4.) STATISTIC: Free Throw Percentage
REASON: How many times per tournament does a game come down to free throws? A-freakin’-lot. Make sure the team has a solid percentage from the stripe, or else it could mean curtains for your dark horse Sweet 16 pick.
BEST REMAINING TEAM: Wisconsin, 81.8% (Best in the nation). Also, second in the nation? Harvard at 81%.
5.) STATISTIC: Percentage of Points for 2-Pts
REASON: Weird right? Why would it matter that a team gets most of their points from inside the arc? Because any team that relies on the three to win games rarely makes it THAT far. That’s why they’re called a “Cinderella Story”. A team that can penetrate and get it inside can make teams collapse, then open up the outside shot. It’s more than just scoring down there, it’s also about creating for the three.
BEST REMAINING TEAM: LIU-Brooklyn, 62.1% (Best in the nation). For safety’s sake the No. 2 is Duke (61.5%) and No. 3 is Wisconsin (60.4%).
Those few stats can help increase your bracket efficiency, maybe. We also learned that Wisconsin should win the whole friggin’ thing, according to our research. I’m going to redo my bracket now.
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