TBBC Fantasy Series: Sleepers, Locks, Over-valued players

Some people player fantasy sports (personally, if it’s not fantasy football, I don’t have any interest in it). With games a few days away, we take a look at a few players from a fantasy perspective, and how they might fair this season.
Sleepers
Jabari Bird, California – Bird didn’t receive a ton of national love on an average Cal team in ’13-’14. He averaged 8.3 ppg and 2 rpg last year. That should change this season.
Bryn Forbes, Michigan State – The grad transfer from Cleveland State who should add a shooting touch to the Spartans.
Aaron Cosby, Illinois – A Seton Hall transfer who will step into a secondary scoring role with Darius Paul gone on a year-long suspension.
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma – The 6-4 guard made a huge jump in scoring (7.8 ppg to 16.5 ppg) from his freshman to sophomore years.
Ian Chiles, Tennessee – Yet another grad transfer who will lead a very inexperienced Volunteers team.
Freshman to watch (Note: We’re leaving out the obvious ones of Okafor, S. Johnson, Alexander, etc.)
Devonte’ Graham, Kansas – Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre have been getting all the love, but Graham could piggy-back on that to double-digit points as the Jayhawks’ point guard.
Goodluck Okonoboh, UNLV – He’s a 6-9 shot-blocker who is much-needed for Dave Rice this season.
Chris Chiozza, Florida – There won’t be a lot of pressure on Chiozza with the talent the Gators have. I expect him to use that to his advantage.
D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Scouts are enthralled with him. He’d be getting more love, but his earlier eligibility issues stunted his hype.
Myles Turner, Texas – Texas is getting sleeper status and Turner, a highly-touted forward, is at the center of it.
Locks (Guys who will consistently put up great numbers)
Jahlil Okafor, Duke – The 6-10 sure-fire one-and-done is about as safe a bet as there is this season to average around 15 and 8.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky – WCS has gone from mildly-heralded recruit coming to Lexington, to guaranteed NBA Draft first rounder. Might be the best-shot blocker in program history.
Marcus Paige, North Carolina – The Cousy Award leader will be counted on to get the UNC offense running. Probably the best point guard in the nation.
Montrezl Harrell, Louisville – He went from a high-motor recruit to 6-8 big with wing skills who’s improved his perimeter shot this season.
Briante Weber, VCU – One of the best defenders — maybe the best — in the nation. Definitely the best one-on-one defender, hands down (or up).
Over-valued players (Guys who won’t have to do as  much as originally thought)
Cliff Alexander, Kansas – He’ll get his stats, probably around 11 ppg and 6 rpg. But what he won’t do is lead the team in points and rebounds as some seem to think.
Branden Dawson, Michigan State – A lot of people believe coach Tom Izzo will lean on him heavily. I don’t see it. There’s enough talent to ease it off of him.
Tyler Ulis, Kentucky – He’ll be a great point guard….next season. This is Andrew Harrison’s role and Ulis should learn all year. Just watch his assist-to-turnover ratio.
Players who are worth more than their stats
Traevon Jackson, Wisconsin – Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky may get the pub (and it’s well-deserved) but it takes a smart, patient point guard to run the Bo Ryan sets. That’s Jackson.
T.J. McConnell, Arizona – On a team full of athletes, McConnell will be the one in charge of getting the team in focus.
Przemek Karnowski, Gonzaga – The stats show a good player (10.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 59.3 FG percentage). The stats even lie. Karnowski is an even greater defensive presence.
Michael Frazier II, Florida – He’s going to be this season’s Ron Baker. He’s more than a shooter.
Anthony Hickey, Oklahoma State – Being a transfer, it’s easy to miss him. But he’s combines a great mix of distribution (3.7 apg last year) and defense (1.8 spg).

Ranking the top coaching hires of the 2014 offseason

1.) Bruce Pearl, Auburn – Duh, right? From the moment he stepped on campus, Pearl has started to stock the program with talent now (Cimmeon Bowers, K.C. Ross-Miller) and later (Kareem Canty, three four-star recruits in his 2015 recruiting class). He’s got the fire to coach again after the show-cause. This team could sneak into the NIT.

2.) Kim Anderson, Missouri – If not for Pearl, this would be my top hire. I know a few Mizzou alums, and I got the same response from all of them, “we’ve tried the big names like Haith and Mike Anderson. We’ve tried the hot assistants in Snyder. Why not try this?” Anderson is a Mizzou alum, a Missouri native and a long-time DII coach in the state with a national title to his name. Why not?

3.) Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech – Kudos to the Hokies for showing their commitment to their basketball program. Williams is already getting commitments himself (three four stars for 2015), it’s just going to take time for the program to develop. And this just won’t be the year, more than likely.

4.) Danny Manning, Wake Forest – I was skeptical about this hire. Then I thought about it. Manning isn’t too far removed from his playing days, and his name also endures with the older folks who know him from his “Danny and The Miracles” days at Kansas. If he can recruit, he’ll do fine.

5.) Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State – Tinkle is a Montana guy. Somehow, the Beavers’ brass got him to Corvallis. It doesn’t hurt that Tinkle locked up his prep star son, as well as his assistants’ kin, who is a great prep player himself. Time will tell of his enthusiasm translates to wins in the Pac-12.

6.) Steve Wojciechowski, Marquette – This is a solid match. Woj (I’m not spelling his name more than once unless required) loves basketball tradition coming from Duke. Marquette has a lot of that tradition stuff. If he can recruit, look out.

7.) Kelvin Sampson, Houston – We all forget, Sampson went to 13 NCAA Tournaments in his final 14 college coaching seasons before burying himself in a show-cause penalty at Indiana. He’s off to a good start with the Cougars getting Chicken Knowles to stick around and recruiting Devonta Pollard out of junior college.

8.) Donnie Tyndall, Tennessee(DISCLAIMER: This is without including the NCAA investigation, it’s too early to factor it in) Tyndall has just won on the low major level of Morehead State — while finding and developing Kenneth Faried — and on the mid-major level at Southern Miss, where he maintained what Larry Eustachy left him. Now? He just has to do it on the high level stage.

9.) Orlando Antigua, South Florida – Antigua was able to recruit to Kentucky. Now, he has the Sun Dome to use, not Rupp Arena (which isn’t exactly a downgrade) and a major city like Tampa. If he can keep that recruiting going for USF, he’ll be fine in the AAC.

10.) Cuonzo Martin, California – Martin wasn’t appreciated in Knoxville. Still, in his one season with his players (two seasons cleaning up the mess left after Pearl was fired) he made the Sweet 16 after underachieving in the regular season. With Jabari Bird to build around, Martin could thrive in Berkeley.

HONORABLE MENTION: Ernie Kent, Washington State – Once upon a time, Kent rebuilt Oregon into a team that made seven postseason appearances in his 13 years in Eugene, including two Elite Eights. He’ll have to rebuild in Pullman the way he did with the Ducks.

Best Value For Their Contract – Sampson: It maxes out at a total of $4.5 million over five years. For a coach with his resume at a place like Houston, that’s a steal.

Best No One Is Talking About – Kent: As the afforementioned blurb stated, Kent has rebuilt before. He can do it again. And in the same region. Which means he’s familiar with everything around him.

Best, Considering the Talent on the Roster – Antigua: He has nine freshmen, redshirt freshman or sophomores on the roster. Add in two junior college transfers, and that’s 11 inexperienced players on the roster. Tyndall feels his pain, and is narrowly edged out here. He’ll have a tough road to travel as well.

Other notable coaching hires: Doc Sadler, Southern Miss; Jim Christian, Ohio; Bob Walsh, Maine; Frank Haith, Tulsa; Jason Gardner, IUPUI; Mike Dunlap, Loyola Marymount; Mike Rhoades, Rice; Heath Schroyer, Tennessee-Martin;Earl Grant, College of Charleston; Kevin Keatts, UNC-Wilmington; Scott Padgett, Samford; Mike Maker, Marist; Saul Phillips, Ohio; Tic Price, Lamar; Dan D’Antoni, Marshall.