TBBC Fantasy Series: Sleepers, Locks, Over-valued players

Some people player fantasy sports (personally, if it’s not fantasy football, I don’t have any interest in it). With games a few days away, we take a look at a few players from a fantasy perspective, and how they might fair this season.
Sleepers
Jabari Bird, California – Bird didn’t receive a ton of national love on an average Cal team in ’13-’14. He averaged 8.3 ppg and 2 rpg last year. That should change this season.
Bryn Forbes, Michigan State – The grad transfer from Cleveland State who should add a shooting touch to the Spartans.
Aaron Cosby, Illinois – A Seton Hall transfer who will step into a secondary scoring role with Darius Paul gone on a year-long suspension.
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma – The 6-4 guard made a huge jump in scoring (7.8 ppg to 16.5 ppg) from his freshman to sophomore years.
Ian Chiles, Tennessee – Yet another grad transfer who will lead a very inexperienced Volunteers team.
Freshman to watch (Note: We’re leaving out the obvious ones of Okafor, S. Johnson, Alexander, etc.)
Devonte’ Graham, Kansas – Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre have been getting all the love, but Graham could piggy-back on that to double-digit points as the Jayhawks’ point guard.
Goodluck Okonoboh, UNLV – He’s a 6-9 shot-blocker who is much-needed for Dave Rice this season.
Chris Chiozza, Florida – There won’t be a lot of pressure on Chiozza with the talent the Gators have. I expect him to use that to his advantage.
D’Angelo Russell, Ohio State – Scouts are enthralled with him. He’d be getting more love, but his earlier eligibility issues stunted his hype.
Myles Turner, Texas – Texas is getting sleeper status and Turner, a highly-touted forward, is at the center of it.
Locks (Guys who will consistently put up great numbers)
Jahlil Okafor, Duke – The 6-10 sure-fire one-and-done is about as safe a bet as there is this season to average around 15 and 8.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky – WCS has gone from mildly-heralded recruit coming to Lexington, to guaranteed NBA Draft first rounder. Might be the best-shot blocker in program history.
Marcus Paige, North Carolina – The Cousy Award leader will be counted on to get the UNC offense running. Probably the best point guard in the nation.
Montrezl Harrell, Louisville – He went from a high-motor recruit to 6-8 big with wing skills who’s improved his perimeter shot this season.
Briante Weber, VCU – One of the best defenders — maybe the best — in the nation. Definitely the best one-on-one defender, hands down (or up).
Over-valued players (Guys who won’t have to do as  much as originally thought)
Cliff Alexander, Kansas – He’ll get his stats, probably around 11 ppg and 6 rpg. But what he won’t do is lead the team in points and rebounds as some seem to think.
Branden Dawson, Michigan State – A lot of people believe coach Tom Izzo will lean on him heavily. I don’t see it. There’s enough talent to ease it off of him.
Tyler Ulis, Kentucky – He’ll be a great point guard….next season. This is Andrew Harrison’s role and Ulis should learn all year. Just watch his assist-to-turnover ratio.
Players who are worth more than their stats
Traevon Jackson, Wisconsin – Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky may get the pub (and it’s well-deserved) but it takes a smart, patient point guard to run the Bo Ryan sets. That’s Jackson.
T.J. McConnell, Arizona – On a team full of athletes, McConnell will be the one in charge of getting the team in focus.
Przemek Karnowski, Gonzaga – The stats show a good player (10.1 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 59.3 FG percentage). The stats even lie. Karnowski is an even greater defensive presence.
Michael Frazier II, Florida – He’s going to be this season’s Ron Baker. He’s more than a shooter.
Anthony Hickey, Oklahoma State – Being a transfer, it’s easy to miss him. But he’s combines a great mix of distribution (3.7 apg last year) and defense (1.8 spg).

Passing the torch of the conscience-free shooter

Much like our last post, this one came from a thought about Marshall Henderson. He was (depending on who you cheered for) fun to watch in all his jersey-popping, landshark-throwing glory. But for some, it was really just because he had coach Andy Kennedy’s blessing to shoot from wherever, whenever. It’s a lost gift, really. In these the days of ball-control and efficiency stats, every possession matters, which makes a player who has the ability to chuck it from a different area code a treasure to behold. Like Clear Pepsi or a late 1990s Master P CD.

He wasn’t the only one. Ethan Wragge is done at Creighton, a guy who took 242 shots last season, and 234 were threes.

So I went digging. I started with some of the top players in terms of three-point attempts in NCAA Division I basketball. Then I went further, seeing what their teams look like to see if they could continue their pace of jacking threes like the line was being banned tomorrow.

Here’s who I think could make you sit and watch a game just to watch them hoist threes all night.

Michael Frazier II, Jr., Florida (264 of 343 shots were 3’s in 13-14) – Let’s get the obvious one out of the way. Frazier is one of the best — possibly the best — big-name shooter in the country and he had a breakout season as the Gators reached the Final Four last year. The 6-4 guard was 118-for-264 (44.6 percent), averaged 12.4 ppg and hit big shots when they mattered — he shot 48 percent in the NCAA Tournament and SEC Tournament combined. With Kasey Hill and Eli Carter in to assume point guard duties after Scottie Wilbekin exhausted his eligibility, Billy Donovan will have to give him the green light based on the fact that, well, you don’t leave a stallion locked in the barn.

Prediction – Over 130 makes and 290 attempts, keeping him at around his normal 44 percent for the year.

 

Q.J. Peterson, Soph., VMI (244 of 549 shots were 3’s) –  When you’re in the right system, everything will come together. For Peterson, he plays for a Keydets team that, as most know, love to get up-and-down the court. As a freshman, Peterson, a 6-foot guard, had no conscience, shooting 244 threes with 78 makes (31.9 percent). That’s a pretty awful percentage, but it’s what comes with the territory when your coaches make line changes for substitutions and average a Division I-leading 88.3 ppg as a team. Peterson averaged 19 ppg, but he basically got the greatest situation for a shooter short of Marshall Henderson at Ole Miss.

Prediction – 110 makes with over 310 attempts, which will improve Peterson’s percentage to around 35 percent.

 

Johnny Dee, Sr., San Diego (225 of 425 shots were 3’s) –  This season it should be more of the same for Dee, who hit 94-of-225 (41.7 percent) threes last season. Two of the other top three scorers return for the Toreros in Christopher Anderson and Duda Sanadze return, which will keep the offense relatively the same. The 6-footer has been one of the more consistent shooters his whole career, averaging around three three-point makes and 6.5 attempts to this point. The Toreros also have eight freshman or sophomores on the team this year, so he’s going to be asked to maintain leadership on the court.

Prediction – Around 100 makes with 230 attempts, which should keep him around his current averages. Dee can also get to the rim, which is evident with his free throw-percentage hovering around 90 percent for his career and averages of around six trips to the line per game.

 

Damon Lynn Soph., NJIT (282 of 405 shots were 3’s) – Lynn led the Highlanders with 17.2 ppg and hit 37.9 percent from three-point range, which was actually better than the 37.3 clip he hit at overall.  The 5-11 guard was easily NJIT’s hottest scorer (Terrence Smith was second at 12.2 ppg and after that no teammates were in double-figures) and with some improvements from the rest of the roster, Lynn could be have the freedom to score. For Lynn, a unchanged situation puts him in the perfect one.

Prediction – Until NJIT finds a conference, guys like Lynn should get the nod to score at will. I’d expect his ppg to climb, but his three-point percentage to drop. Around 90 makes and 250 attempts.

 Did I miss anyone? Got a better idea? Email me at tbbchronicles@gmail.com or hit me on Twitter @David_Harten.