In the 2012-13 season, Miami had arguably their best year in program history. With one of the oldest teams (the average age of the team hovered around 22 years old) in the nation under coach Jim Larranaga’s watch, the Hurricanes went 29-7, won both the ACC regular season and tournament championships and made it to the Sweet 16.
And to open that season, they lost to St. Leo in an exhibition game.
That’s a pretty important thing to remember when you examine what happened to the Hurricanes on Friday night. Behind awful shooting, The U suffered what is by all accounts the worst loss under Larranaga and one of the worst losses in program history, a 72-44 loss to Eastern Kentucky. Before Friday, EKU had beaten as many Top 25 teams as I have.
Against the Colonels, Miami allowed 14 threes (EKU hit 53.8 percent of them, 14-26, from three-point range) and shot 29.3 percent from the field themselves. They were out-rebounded 37-26 and made only 12 shots all night. As far as implosions go, the Hurricanes couldn’t do much worse than allowing a now-6-4 team to go on a 22-2 run in the second half while on the road.
Under Larranaga, Miami has become what Gonzaga seemed to be around the mid-2000s. They play to the level of their competition when you don’t see it coming. For every great win (at Florida, against Illinois) there are baffling losses (the aforementioned EKU stinker, and the home loss to Green Bay two games earlier).
Looking back at the 2012-13 season again, Miami didn’t stop with the ‘huh?’ losses when they went to the Diamondhead Classic and lost to Indiana State. Though that loss would later not be seen as all that bad, as the Sycamores were a solid team. But compared to how they finished the season, that defeat left some scratching their heads at the time.
They would also add losses at Wake Forest (who finished 13-18) and at home against 16-15 Georgia Tech in ACC play.
But that’s just how Miami is recently. And it’s really not that bad, considering that this is essentially the golden era of Hurricane basketball. They have depth, with 10 players averaging at least 10 minutes per game. Five players are averaging at least seven points per game and as a team, Miami is shooting 47.2 percent. The offensive funk that came Friday night probably won’t last.
The U will pull as many weird losses out of its hat as it will great wins. And while they’ll no doubt drop from their no. 18 national ranking out of the Top 25, Miami should still have a solid season as ACC play approaches. The wins over the Gators and Fightin’ Illini weren’t a fluke.
We only need to look back at a little history to see that.
Follow David Harten on Twitter at @David_Harten.
It’s a simple question: With their resume, does Virginia have the resume to bypass the seemingly endless amount of other teams on the proverbial Bubble and make it into the field?
Consider me as one of those who thinks yes, without question. And it all has to do with their quality wins.
According to RealTimeRPI.com (the site I swear by when it comes time to look at such things) the Cavaliers have seven wins over Top 100 RPI teams. Four of them are against the Top 50 in North Carolina State, North Carolina, Wisconsin and now, Duke. The three Top 100 wins are Florida State*, Tennessee and Maryland.
(*Yes, somehow Florida State is still a Top 100 team.)
So we have the wins out of the way. Now, we have to look at the other side of things, the part that might actually weigh on the Wahoo’s NCAA Tournament chances more than anything. The bad losses.
And man, they’re awful. In fact, you could make a case that everything I’m writing is total crap, and these should keep them out.
On the season, Tony Bennett’s team is 20-8. Of those eight losses, six are against teams outside the RPI Top 150, including what could turn out to be the shot to the jugular to their Big Dance chances, the 63-61 loss to a dreadful Old Dominion team that ranks 323rd in the RPI*.
(*I understand there are other ways of determining what Virginia’s chances are. But the RPI is the main factor by which the NCAA Tournament Committee decides, so by that rationale, one has to think like the committee thinks.)
In fact, before back-to-back losses to North Carolina (20th) and Miami (3rd) on Feb. 16 and 19, all of the Cavaliers’ losses were to teams outside the Top 150.
So yea, one might see exactly why the case can be made that Virginia has some work to do, possibly even needing a decent run in the ACC Tournament.
But here’s my main argument, with the numbers all laid out: Those disgusting losses early in the season to bad teams, all of which were in the CAA (George Mason, Old Dominion, Delaware), don’t mean as much as getting four wins over sure-fire tournament teams in Wisconsin, North Carolina, North Carolina State and Duke.
Had the conference wins come in a lesser power conference such as the SEC or Big 12, which range from “bad” to “a bit down” this season, I’d say otherwise. But this a season in which even Miami, who isn’t traditionally a power in the conference, is dominant, and the ACC has shown to be up there with the B1G this season as a best-of-the-best conference (though I believe the B1G to be the best overall, the ACC a slight second).
So the Selection Committee has to ask itself: What do we value more? Good wins or bad losses? When it comes to Virginia, the answer to that question will decide whether they’re celebrating or sulking on national television during the Selection Show in a few weeks.
Follow David Harten on Twitter at @David_Harten